Israel & the US Are Self-Destructing, and These are Dangerous Times

Listen to Ilan Pappé’s fascinating and insightful analysis on The Electronic Intifada live-streamed on 21st February 2025 (Pappé's segment ends at 1:12:27)

Ilan Pappé’s segment in this EI broadcast from 21/2/2025 ends at 1:12:27

Prof. Ilan Pappé has been at the forefront of researching, recording and commenting on the history of Zionist Israeli settler-colonialism and its devastating impact on the Palestinian people. He regularly offers incisive analyses of current events, as well as educated and well-informed predictions that are consistently proven accurate. I usually feel validated by Ilan’s predictions because I see what he sees, though the difference between us is that Ilan is far better informed than I am about history and geopolitical facts. My analyses and predictions are based on my understanding of Israeli psychology and the way that recurring patterns tend to play out in individual and group behaviour. Pappé and I are both from Israel and are fluent in Hebrew. This gives us insight into what the Israeli media are saying, and into the real conversations taking place within Israeli society.

I have previously commented on the way the dominant Israeli media carefully control what they allow the non-Hebrew-speaking world to access. Some people still believe that reading Ha’aretz in English offers them a good grasp of the Israeli mindset or Israeli politics. Ha’aretz is still permitted to operate in Israel only because it serves Israel’s image in the West. It helps Israel maintain the false image of a democracy that reflects, questions and scrutinises itself. In reality, Israeli society is no more reflective than a cult. Without understanding Israel's cult psychology, people can be misled into thinking there is still someone there to reason with. Among other topics he covers in this interview, Pappé discusses the mindset in Israeli society and what the Israeli media report.

The ‘State of Judea’ and the ‘State of Israel’

In this interview on The Electronic Intifada (see also link below), Pappé offers a compelling analysis of Israel’s current trajectory. He argues that Jewish Israeli society is split between what he terms the ‘state of Judea’ and the ‘state of Israel’—a reference to the Biblical Book of Kings’ account of how the kingdom divided after King Solomon’s death.

The Biblical narrative portrays Judah as the righteous kingdom that remained faithful to Hebrew monotheism, while casting the Kingdom of Israel as a wayward nation that abandoned its faith, misled by the hubris of a string of ambitious kings to fall into polytheism and idolatry. This reference is important in today’s context.

What Pappé calls the ‘state of Judea’ comprises the zealous settler movement—fanatical, religious, Messianic Zionists who have transformed from a fringe minority into a formidable force within Israeli society. They now wield significant influence across all power centres, with only the Judiciary remaining partially and temporarily beyond their grasp. Their unwavering goal has always been to establish a Jewish state governed by their interpretation of Jewish religious law. They envision themselves as restoring the Biblical Kingdom of Judah, and regard secular Jews with a contempt that sometimes exceeds their hatred for declared enemies.

For decades, this faction has pursued a dual strategy: attempting to bring secular Jews ‘back to the faith’ (חזרה בתשובה)¹, while systematically infiltrating state institutions to achieve increasing control. Their Messianic zeal (and arrogance) drive them to believe they can accelerate the Messiah’s arrival by establishing a state where everyone observes Jewish religion, and where state institutions are governed by religious law. (In Judaism, as distinct from Christianity, the Messiah is yet to arrive).

The ‘state of Israel’, as Pappé describes it, consists primarily of secular Jews (the society of my upbringing). While they cling to a self-image of liberal democracy, the vast majority still support the settler-colonial project. They share the genocidal Zionist aim of the ‘state of Judea’ — creating an exclusively Jewish state at the expense of the entire Palestinian population of historic Palestine. However, they shroud themselves in a veneer of Western liberalism, and seem to suggest that there is a way to make settler-colonialism a bit more enlightened. This pretence of ‘enlightened’ settler-colonialism makes them, in my view, even more contemptible than their religious counterparts, who at least make no secret of their intentions. Pappé notes a significant exodus of these ‘state of Israel’ adherents, creating a vacuum that the ‘state of Judea’ eagerly fills. The reason so many secular Jews are leaving Israel, is because they do not want to live in a religious state. Their leaving should not be interpreted as opposition to the Zionist project.

Israel’s trajectory points toward self-destruction. Both ‘states’ are architects of their own downfall. The ‘state of Judea’, like far-right movements globally, demonstrates profound incompetence in governance. Their rule inevitably collapses under the weight of chaos and internal contradictions. However, Pappé cautions against premature celebration. As he has previously predicted, fanatical groups—whether the state of Judea, the Trump administration, or their global counterparts —inflict immense suffering in pursuit of their goals. Their eventual fall is certain, but they leave devastation in their wake. This isn’t mystical prophecy, but a pattern drawn from historical precedent, mirroring the behaviour of individuals who refuse to, or are unable to address their psychological wounds.

Pappé’s vision for the future

Israel is existentially dependent on US money and military aid. However, despite the constant flow of munitions, weaponry and war technology, Israeli society’s confidence in their military is collapsing. Israeli Jews are witnessing the failure of their hallowed military force as it struggles against guerrilla warfare, despite being much larger and vastly better equipped than their opponents. Pappé argues that “forcing an exclusively Jewish state” on the world is a failing endeavour.

The election of Trump, and the rise of other far-right figures to power create what Pappé calls an “optical illusion” that Israel has nothing to worry about from the international community. But the support Israel is counting on will crumble. Centre-left regimes, such as the UK, that currently support Israel are increasingly exposed as complicit in settler-colonialism and ethnic cleansing. While the Israel lobby works to ensure the continuation of support for Israel, Pappé believes it too will inevitably collapse.

Pappé believes we are witnessing the end of an era. However, he thinks we should not put our faith in current political actors—on any side of politics—to bring the change we desire. We need to look towards the beginning of a new era, where politics is based on principles that reflect people’s real concerns. Pappé suggests that we are witnessing the collapse of the old colonial order everywhere, not just in Palestine. He suggests that we turn this collapse into something positive, and has an important message for activists. While our movement is huge—especially since October 2023—it remains fragmented. Pappé urges us to translate our massive protest movements into a powerful and unified movement of “politics from above”. As long as we are fragmented, we will fail.

Pappé is working on a new book, Israel on the Brink, due to be published in September this year. The book offers his imagined vision for 2048 — a century after the Nakba. In Pappé’s imagined future, several developments come to fruition. First, the process of transforming the structure and organisation of the Palestinian movement will be complete. It becomes unified, and overcomes fragmentation with a clear vision for the future. Second, building on this change, practical processes of return, restorative justice, and transitional justice will be enacted inside historic Palestine. These include the creation of a National Assembly, the return of people to Palestine where possible, and mechanisms to compensate those who cannot return.

Pappé believes Palestinians are focused more on restitution than retribution, and are likely to engage in rebuilding their society and identity rather than on seeking vengeance. He imagines that many Jews will leave Palestine by 2048, particularly those who cannot overcome their racism, and who cannot imagine sharing the country with Palestinians.

I highly recommend listening to Pappé's interview. He offers a complex vision, and an important call to activists. I look forward to his upcoming book.

1. חזרה בתשובה (hazara bitshuvah) literally translates as “return in repentance” or “return to the answer”, but its cultural meaning is more specific—it refers to secular Jews becoming religiously observant. I used the common English translation, “returning to the faith” but it does not fully capture the cultural and theological weight of the Hebrew term. The word תשובה (tshuvah) itself carries deep meaning in Judaism, referring to repentance and return to God.

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